Saturday, January 30, 2016

2016 Primary/Caucus Calendar


So here is the 2016 Primary Caucus Calendar along with my $0.02 in italics. To clinch the nomination,the Democrats need 2382 delegates out of 4763 total. The Republicans need 1237 of 2475. Some states divide their votes proportionately.  For example if a state has 100 delegates, and Martin O'Malley wins 40% of the vote, Bernie Sanders wins 35% and Hillary Clinton wins 25%, then O'Malley gets 40 delegates, Bernie gets 35 delegates and Hillary gets 25 delegates. If the same scenario presents itself in a winner take all state, O'Malley gets all 100 delegates and Hillary and Bernie get bupkis. 

There are a whole bunch of other scenario's with super delegates and stuff that quite honestly, I have not a clue about. I seem to recall a couple of instances in 2008 where Hillary won the most votes in a state but somehow Barack Obama came out with more delegates. Someone much smarter than me with a lot more time on their hands than I have can explain that to the class. One thing I will say, I like how there are no more than 2 weeks between most contests in this cycle. Should keep it fun and interesting. 

Anyway, without further ado, here is Weekly Mail's guide to the Primaries and Caucuses. 


Monday, February 1    

Iowa caucus     52 D, 30  R

First state to cast votes for the nominees. Rick Santorum won here in 2012, Mike Huckabee in 2008. Do with that what you will

Winners:  Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz

Tuesday, February 9


New Hampshire     32 D  23 R

First in the nation primary. Mitt and McCain won here in 2012 and 2008 respectively. Hillary won here in 2008. 

Winners:  Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump


Saturday, February 20  


Nevada caucus (D) 43

Winner: Hillary Clinton

South Carolina (R) 50

Winner: Donald Trump

Pollsters usually put much stock into South Carolina because it's first in the South. Newt Gingrich won here in 2012.  If Trump wins here....uh-oh. 

Tuesday, February 23  

Nevada caucus (R) 30

I think the Nevada caucus has some funky rules about how they nominate, so not sure how much stock I put in these caucuses. Now watch as the historians say the Nevada caucus decided the 2016 election. 

Winner: Donald Trump


Saturday, February 27  


South Carolina (D) 59


Pollsters usually put much stock into South Carolina because it's first in the South. Barack Obama 
won here in 2008.  

Winner: Hillary Clinton

Tuesday, March 1-Super Tuesday

Alabama   60 D, 50 R.     Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Alaska caucus (R)28.       Winner: Ted Cruz

American Samoa caucus (D)10. Winner: Hillary Clinton

Arkansas                37 D, 40 R.   Winners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Colorado caucus    79 D          .   Winners: Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz

Georgia                   116 D, 76 R. Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Massachusetts        116 D, 42 R.   Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Minnesota caucus    93 D, 38 R.    Winners Bernie Sanders and Marco Rubio

Oklahoma            42 D, 43 R.        Winners: Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz

Tennessee            76 D, 58 R.          Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Texas                    252 D, 155 R.      Winners: Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz

Vermont               26 D, 16 R.           Winners: Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump

Virginia                110 D, 49 R.         Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

By this time, we'll know if Hillary is going to waltz to the nomination or will Bernie Sanders give her 
a fight. The only prediction I'll make on the Republican side is that at least one political commentator will declare "We could have a brokered convention!!!" I hear THAT every year. I have yet to see one. 




Saturday, March 5

Kansas caucus      37 D, 40 R                Winners: Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz

Kentucky caucus      (R)45                    Winner: Donald Trump

Louisiana           58 D, 47 R                  Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Maine caucus (R)23                              Winner: Ted Cruz

Nebraska caucus (D)30                         Winner: Bernie Sanders


Again with the caucuses. I'll find the fountain of youth before I figure out how the caucuses work





Sunday, March 6


Maine caucus (D)30.                  Winner: Bernie Sanders


Puerto Rico    (R)23.                     Winner: Marco Rubio



Who votes on a Sunday?



Tuesday, March 8


Hawaii caucus (R)19.                   Winner: Donald Trump

Idaho     (R)32.                              Winner: Ted Cruz

Michigan    148 D, 59 R.              Winners: Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump

Mississippi   41 D, 40 R.              Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Bunch of delegates up for grabs in Michigan and Mississippi. 




Saturday, March 12

Wyoming Caucus (R 29).                        Winner: Ted Cruz

Guam (R convention) 9.                          Winner: Ted Cruz

Northern Marianas caucus (D)11.           Winner: Hillary Clinton

District of Columbia caucus (R)19.        Winner:  Marco Rubio

"The convention in Guam can turn the tide of this election cycle", said no one ever


Tuesday, March 15


Florida   246 D, 99 R.             Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Illinois   182 D, 69                  Winners:Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Missouri  84 D, 52 R.              Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

North Carolina  121 D, 72 R.   Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Northern Mariana Islands caucus (R)9 Winner: Donald Trump

Ohio  159 D, 66 R.                       Winners:   Hillary Clinton and John Kasich

This could be called Super Tuesday II, and could wrap things up. Ohio, Illinois and FLA are big delegate states. 


Saturday, March 19


Virgin Islands caucus (R)9 Delegates unpledged till convention



Tuesday, March 22

American Samoa (R convention)9 Delegates unpledged till convention

Arizona    85 D, 58 R Winners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Idaho caucus   (D)27 Winner Bernie Sanders

Utah       37 D, 40 R. Winners: Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz


Lets see, I can campaign in Utah, where there's no booze and its freezing or Arizona, where it should be 72 and sunny, (with twice the delegates to boot) 



Saturday, March 26

Alaska caucus (D) 20.    Winner: Bernie Sanders

Hawaii caucus (D) 34.     Winner: Bernie Sanders

Washington caucus (D) 118 Winner: Bernie Sanders

If I'm Hillary, and I haven't put Bernie away yet, I'd send Bill to Alaska and head to Hawaii. 


Tuesday, April 5


Wisconsin   96 D, 42 R.         Winners: Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz

Cheesus!


Saturday, April 9


Wyoming caucus (D)18          Winner: Bernie Sanders



Tuesday, April 19


New York   291 D, 95 R.            Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

I really hope my vote means something on this day. Most years I would say it wouldn't, but do you see any Republicans running away with it? 



Tuesday, April 26

Connecticut  70 D, 28 R.       Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Delaware      31 D, 16 R.        Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Maryland      118 D, 38 R.      Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Pennsylvania   210 D, 71 R.  Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Rhode Island   33 D, 19 R.     Winners: Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump

I really do hope that Bernie and Hilary are still slugging it out at this point. 


Tuesday, May 3

Indiana  92 D, 57 R.               Winners: Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump



Saturday, May 7

Guam (D) 12.                          Winner: Hillary Clinton



Tuesday, May 10

Nebraska (R)36.                      Winner: Donald Trump

West Virginia 34 D, 37 R.       Winners:  Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump




Tuesday, May 17

Kentucky (D)61                        Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Oregon 73 D, 28 R                    Winners: Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump



Tuesday, May 24

Washington (R) 44                     Winner: Donald Trump*



Saturday, June 4

Virgin Islands caucus (D )12     Winner: Hillary Clinton



Sunday, June 5

Puerto Rico caucus (D) 67         Winner Hillary Clinton

Tuesday, June 7


California     546 D, 172 R        Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Montana       27 D, 27 R            Winners: Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump

New Jersey   142 D, 51 R          Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

New Mexico  43 D, 24 RC         Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

South Dakota   25 D, 29 R          Winners: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump    

North Dakota caucus (D)23        Winner: Bernie Sanders 

It would be an absolute miracle if either party doesn't have the nomination locked up by now. But if it does get to this point, it will be wild watching the candidates crisscrossing between NJ and California for votes. If it somehow, someway comes down to Trump vs. Christie, they'll spend more time in Cali than the Kardashians. How about if Ted Cruz has to grovel for those New Jersyians with their NY values. Again, I'm pretty sure we'll have our nominees long before it comes to this, but I've seen some $h-t in this cycle that I've never seen before so stay tuned. 

Tuesday, June 14

District of Columbia (D)  46          Winner: Hillary Clinton


  

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